Thursday, July 28, 2016

Trump Surpasses Clinton In Post-Convention Bounce

Bearing in mind that this was as of Monday, Nate Silver shows Donald Trump barely edging Hillary Clinton based on his "now-cast" model, which takes into account various other factors besides polling data. Particularly, it shows Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida all going to Trump, which would be the first time such a thing has happened that I can recall.

My overall case against Trump winning (not the political case, mind you) is that
  1. There is no (significant) Democratic crossover Trump voter.
  2. No polls have shown him consistently tied with Clinton, let alone winning.
  3. His negatives are historically high, with 70% of Americans having a negative opinion of him.
#2, at least, appears shaky, but the Democratic National Convention has yet to wind down, and we shall see what the polling data looks like after that.

No comments:

Post a Comment