Bearing in mind that this was as of Monday,
Nate Silver shows Donald Trump barely edging Hillary Clinton based on his
"now-cast" model, which takes into account various other factors besides polling data. Particularly, it shows Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida all going to Trump, which would be the first time such a thing has happened that I can recall.
My overall case against Trump winning (not the
political case, mind you) is that
- There is no (significant) Democratic crossover Trump voter.
- No polls have shown him consistently tied with Clinton, let alone winning.
- His negatives are historically high, with 70% of Americans having a negative opinion of him.
#2, at least, appears shaky, but the Democratic National Convention has yet to wind down, and we shall see what the polling data looks like after that.
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